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Thursday, June 21, 2012
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
News and Society Blog-Economics: In Europe, It's 2008 All Over Again
Investors clamored last week to lend money to the German government for two years at no interest. Some investors accepted negative yields - meaning they gave Berlin a cut of their assets merely in exchange for their safekeeping.
If not yet indicative of an out-and-out panic, it is at least a sign of economic hopelessness. Skepticism regarding most other European governments and European banks has reached levels that are driving investors to seek refuge rather than opportunity. Their money is flowing out of banks, out of bonds issued by less financially stable governments, and out of corporate stocks, all for fear that tighter credit and government austerity will trigger a profit-crushing recession.
As European leaders bicker over how to respond, the bickering itself is adding to the problem by feeding concern that the situation will be allowed to get much worse before policymakers finally take forceful enough steps to allow healing to begin.
Today's Euro-centric problems are reminiscent of those that prompted our own appearance at center stage of 2008's global financial mess.
The worst moment in the crisis that year arguably occurred on September 29, when the House of Representatives shocked its own leadership by rejecting a $700 banking bailout plan. The vote came exactly two weeks after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. Suddenly, even though most institutions were actually solvent, nobody trusted anybody. Stock markets plunged, and credit for everything from business expansions to mortgages all but dried up. Money flooded into U.S. Treasury obligations, which were perceived as a safe haven.
This was no mere crisis of confidence. There was a real problem at the root of the financial gridlock - namely the bursting of a U.S. housing bubble that exposed a mountain of unpayable mortgage debt. Someone was going to take a big loss; we just did not know then who the unluckiest parties would be. Trading in securitized mortgages and derivatives amplified the losses and transmitted them around the world.
Yet, as big as the problem was, the financial system itself was much bigger. As a whole, the leading banks here and abroad remained solvent, even though individual institutions risked failure. An isolated failure was a manageable risk in the broad scheme of things, even if it was not a risk that private actors were willing to accept after the Lehman collapse and the subsequent troubles at AIG, Merrill Lynch and a number of other firms.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and Timothy Geithner, who at the time headed the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and later became Paulson's successor, organized the bailout plan. Their idea was to buy troubled mortgages and other so-called toxic assets from the banks, removing the threat to the institutions' financial strength that such fast-depreciating assets represented.
President George W. Bush signed on, as did congressional leaders in both houses from both parties. But when the plan came before the House, rank-and-file members rebelled. Democrats, who controlled the chamber, voted 140-95 in favor, while Republicans opposed it by a two-to-one margin, at 65-133. The result was a stunning 228-205 defeat.
The markets reacted furiously, even as the vote was going on. Everything sold off except Treasuries, which reached levels not seen since the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, and the bonds of a few of the most secure foreign governments, notably Germany and the United Kingdom.
Despite their leaders' entreaties, lawmakers opposed the bailout plan, partly because they believed it would saddle the government with losses that rightly belonged to the banks and partly because they feared voters would promptly turn them out of office for backing the bankers who the public largely blamed for creating the crisis in the first place.
But within a few days, the House reversed itself and passed the plan 263-171. Fifty-eight lawmakers changed their minds. In the end, everyone recognized what many refused to acknowledge then and have refused to acknowledge since: The bailout was not for the benefit of the bankers. It was for the benefit of the country. A functioning economy is impossible without functioning banks. Functioning banks are impossible without public confidence in their ability to do business. And the banks, for all their missteps, were in the aggregate fundamentally sound. The bailout, which was eventually modified to become the Troubled Asset Relief Program, has been a net moneymaker for the government on its bank operations.
Though there are some similarities, notably in the role that housing bubbles played in bringing on troubles in Spain and Ireland, Europe's issues are still somewhat different from those we confronted four years ago. We worried then that private banks were overexposed to one another; today's growing concern is that Europe's banks are overexposed to the shaky finances of governments in places like Spain, Greece and Portugal. Unless you strengthen the governments, it is very hard to strengthen the banks. If you can't strengthen the banks, you can't strengthen the local economy. If you can't strengthen the economy, you can't strengthen the government.
Yet certain policy responses, like our 2008 bailout, are likely to be forced on even reluctant European politicians. A multinational system of bank regulation and deposit insurance, direct loans and other support from the European Central Bank to individual institutions, multinational oversight of national budget and tax plans, and eventually European multinational bonds are all likely to happen sooner or later.
Passage of the 2008 bailout bill was a key step in stabilizing the American financial crisis and restoring faith in our financial institutions. It happened only after the financial markets sounded a clear warning of the disaster to follow if the banks were left to flounder on their own. Europe is now having its own 2008 moment. Here's hoping the ultimate response is equally constructive.
For more articles, please visit the Palisades Hudson Financial Group LLC newsletter or subscribe to the blog.
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Is global warming responsible for chinstrap penguin decline?
A population of chinstrap penguins in Antarctica has seen a 36 percent decline since 1991, in what researchers say is a consequence of declining krill populations.?
Named for the thin black band of feathers that extends from ear to ear under their heads, chinstrap penguins grow to about 2.2 feet (68 centimeters) tall, with males being larger and heavier than females.
Andres Barbosa
EnlargeA population of chinstrap penguins is feeling the heat, with more than one-third of a breeding colony lost in the past 20 years, new research finds.
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A warming planet, which is causing?sea ice in Antarctica?(and elsewhere) to melt, may ultimately be to blame for?the plummeting penguin population, the researchers said. That's because the chinstraps' main food, shrimplike creatures called krill, depend on algae that attaches to that ice.
"Actually, in the '90s it was thought that the climate change would favor the chinstrap penguin, because this species prefers sea waters without ice, unlike?the Ad?lie penguin, which prefers the ice pack," study researcher Andres Barbosa told LiveScience. He added that at the time, chinstraps, named for the thin black facial line from cheek to cheek, seemed to increase in numbers, with some new colonies being established.
The sea-ice decline in the winter, however, has become so big that it is now impacting krill populations, said Barbosa, of the National Museum of Natural Sciences in Madrid.
Counting chinstraps
Barbosa and his colleagues tallied chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica) in the Vapour Col colony of Deception Island, in the Antarctic's South Shetland Islands in 1991-92 and 2008-09. They photographed nests in 19 subcolonies, mainly in December when chicks were hatching. [See Photos of Chinstrap Penguins on Deception]
Results, which ended up including just 12 of the subcolonies due to availability of data, showed the occupied nests had declined by 36 percent between 1991 and 2008.
Barbosa and colleagues ruled out research activity as the cause for the loss since both studied populations and those used as controls showed similar patterns of decline.
Tourism is also not a likely culprit. Deception Island, built on a volcano, is one of the?most visited places in Antarctica; the 2007-08 year saw some 25,000 visitors, according to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). Meanwhile, the nearby chinstrap penguin colony of Bailey Head, which is usually visited by 2,000 to 3,500 people every season, showed a decline of about 50 percent.
Rather, a dip in the krill population may be to blame, an idea supported by the fact that Ad?lie penguin population (P. adeliae) in the region is also declining, while the?gentoo penguin population?(P. papua), which has a more variable diet, is not.
(The chinstrap, gentoo and Ad?lie penguins are the three pygoscelid species (in the?Pygoscelis?genus) that inhabit the Antarctic Peninsula, the region of the Antarctic continent where the effects of climate change are more evident, the researchers noted.)
Saving penguins
But Barbosa says the chinstraps aren't a lost cause.
"This is an example of how the human activity far from the poles can affect the life at thousands of kilometers far from our homes," Barbosa told LiveScience. "Therefore, a more responsible use of the energy and the fossil fuels is necessary to preserve the planet and then the Antarctica."
In addition, he said, to protect the organisms that call the Antarctic home, we need to reduce human impact by reducing overfishing, tourism and even research activity.
The research was detailed online May 22 in the journal Polar Biology.
Follow LiveScience on Twitter?@livescience. We're also on?Facebook?&?Google+.
Copyright 2012?LiveScience, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Arizona's Twelfth Annual Transition Conference ? Online ...
for
Arizona?s?Twelfth Annual Transition Conference
?Facing the Future: Who?s in Your Network?
?October 15?17, 2012
Talking Stick Resort
9800 East Indian Bend Road
Scottsdale, AZ ?85256
(866) 877-9897
2012 Transition Conference Program Overview
Arizona?s?Twelfth Annual Transition Conference, Facing the Future: Who?s in Your Network? is a collaborative, cross-stakeholder professional development event aimed at providing meaningful and pertinent information needed in the transition planning process for youth and young adults with disabilities.?This annual conference provides a dynamic array of national speakers, state level experts, and also includes youth, young adult, and family member participation. Session content is structured around three topical strands: (1) strategies for enhancing youth success, (2) community involvement, and (3) interagency collaboration.
Early registration for Arizona?s?Twelfth Annual Transition Conference is now open and will end Friday, July 13, 2012.?Standard registration begins Saturday, July 14, 2012, and ends Friday, September 21, 2012. This conference has been filled to capacity for the last three years, make sure to register early!
Please note the following registration details:
- Conference registration will be processed exclusively online for all participants (note: presenters and vendors will register separately, NOT through the general registration site and should use the instructions provided by conference organizers);
- Early, standard, and late/walk-in registration periods significantly impact registration fees;
- Family and youth/young adult-focused strands will only be held on Monday and Tuesday.?Registration fees and scholarship funding allow participants who register as a family member, youth, or young adult to attend the conference on October 15 and 16, 2012. Additional information about scholarships will be disseminated soon;
- Registration fees for educators, service agency providers, and other professionals allow participation in all three days of the conference;
- Scholarships continue to be available on a first-come, first-served basis for youth, young adults, and family members needing assistance with lodging or registration costs.?Only youth/young adults aged 22 and younger and/or family members of eligible youth are eligible for scholarship funding. Scholarships may be limited based on the number of applicants per family or on scholarship awards received in prior years; and
- There will be no allowance for single-day registration.
SPECIAL NOTES:?The conference begins at 9:30 a.m. on Monday morning to accommodate participants traveling from out of town.?Also, in order to be environmentally conscious, paper copies of handouts will not be provided at the conference. Materials for all sessions will be posted online three weeks prior to the conference on the ADE/ESS Secondary Transition website (http://www.azed.gov/special-education/special-projects/secondary-transition/). Participants are asked to print and bring materials for sessions of interest.
ADE/ESS is pleased to welcome Jonathan Mooney as this year?s opening keynote speaker! Mr. Mooney is a noted writer and learning activist whose work has been widely recognized for its innovation and social impact. He has been featured in The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Chicago Tribune, USA Today, New York Magazine, The Washington Post, and The Boston Globe an also on HBO, NPR, and ABC News.
Please see the?Program Overview for information about?conference and hotel room registration, as well as a listing of national speakers, outline of sessions provided by local presenters, and a general schedule.?For additional information, contact Jeannette Zemeida at (602) 542-3855 or via e-mail at Jeannette.Zemeida@azed.gov.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Video: FOMC Meets Today, Could QE3 Be Far Behind?
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Mary Ellen Harte: Climate Change This Week: Speed Heating, Clean Energy Replaces Coal, and More
You Think These Wildfires Are Bad? A new University of California study indicates that as climate change continues, we can expect more and worse wildfires throughout most fire-prone areas (think temperate forests especially) extending over half the planet, reports Nathanael Massey at ClimateWire.
Speed Heating: Climate Central's new report, The Heat Is On, shows that global warming in the U.S. has accelerated dramatically everywhere in the past 40 years, but fastest from Minnesota to Maine, and in the southwest, where several wildfires are now raging.
Dirty Coal Down, Clean Energy Up: U.S. coal use in generating electricity is falling fast, and predicted to go below 40 percent this year, as electric utilities switch to clean energy and to a lesser extent, natural gas, reports Jonathan Fahey at the Associated Press, and Zachary Shahan at Cleantechnica.
Smoke Gets In Your Lungs: The World Health Organization recently concluded that diesel exhuast fumes, the stuff that puffs out of the tailpipes of many U.S. trucks and European cars, can cause lung cancer -- it's as dangerous as tobacco smoke, reports Kate Kelland at World Environment News. WHO suggests we cut down on the stuff.
Speaking of Smoke: Geo-engineering, schemes that massively manipulate the planet's atmosphere to cool global warming, such as injection of tiny reflective particles in the stratosphere, entails great risks because some of the results could be wildly unpredictable and destructive to planetary life, reports Michael Specter at the New Yorker.
Save the Baby Puffins! And Ice Birds! Way up on the Arctic's Cooper Island, horned puffins and ice birds (aka guillemots) are relying on proven polar bear-proof nesting boxes supplied by humans to keep their babies safe from marauding polar bears, because climate change now makes it easier for polar bears to eat lots of baby birds rather than hunt on increasingly distant sea ice. Want to save some special baby birds this summer? Go here. I'll post updates on my adopted nesting family in future CCTWs as I get'em.
Every day is Earth Day, folks, as I was reminded when I saw this photo of a puffin and nesting ice bird that Rob Moir took and allowed me to share with you. Making the U.S. a global clean energy leader will ensure a clean, safe future. If you'd like to tell Congress that you support clean energy and will vote for clean energy candidates, join the increasing numbers of people doing so here. For more detailed summaries of the above and other climate change items, audio podcasts and texts are freely available.
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